This website features a clinical prediction tool, intended for use by clinicians in the acute care and early rehabilitation setting to predict the likelihood of independent walking 1-year after a traumatic spinal cord injury (TSCI). The prediction is based on the patient’s age and baseline International Standards for Neurological Classification of Spinal Cord Injury (ISNCSCI) examination collected within 15-days of injury.
This calculator is intended for use by clinicians. The user must input variables based on the ISNCSCI examination, which requires accurate and reliable assessments by a clinician with experience in this assessment.
This calculator is not recommended to be used by persons with SCI. Instead, we encourage persons with SCI to consult with a clinician to discuss whether this prediction model is applicable to their situation.
This calculator should be used to assist with patient management in the acute setting and early rehabilitation, using ISNCSCI examination information assessed within the first 15 days of injury.
The calculator has been developed using data from patients with TSCI and has not been tested for use in patients with non-traumatic SCI (NTSCI).
The application of this tool may be most helpful in the assessment of patients presenting with injury severity of AIS B or C at admission, as their potential for recovery is variable and they may benefit the most from estimates of long-term functional capabilities. Patients presenting with an injury severity of AIS A or D have recovery trajectories that are more predictable (AIS A - low likelihood of walking, AIS D - high likelihood of walking), making this tool of limited value for that group.
All results must be interpreted within the context of the patient's full clinical profile. This calculator provides a probability score based on a published equation using multivariable logistic regression.1
A 50% cut-off is used to predict the likelihood of being an independent walker 1-year after injury, and further translated into probability values related to the functional outcome (FIM).
An independent walker is defined as someone who is able to walk without assistance from another person but may use a walking aid (e.g. walker, cane, etc.). Anyone who requires the assistance or supervision of another person to walk, or is unable to walk is not considered to be an independent walker.
Ambulation is a web-based app for predicting independent walking outcomes after TSCI. The clinical prediction rule was developed by Hicks et al,1 using multivariable logistic regression (LR) analyses on a large prospective database of patients with TSCI.
The user inputs the variables required to calculate the prediction rule score through weighted coefficients. The prediction score is inputted into an equation, resulting in a value that represents the predicted likelihood of walking independently, 1-year after TSCI.
Hicks et al. | |
---|---|
Cohort | The Canadian Rick Hansen Spinal Cord Injury Registry (RHSCIR) |
Cohort size | 278 |
Period | 2004 - 2014 |
Outcome measure |
FIM locomotion
|
Clinical prediction variables |
1. Age at injury 2. Motor score of quadriceps femoris (L3) muscle 3. Light touch sensation of gastrocsoleus (S1) dermatome |
Area under receiver-operating-characteristics curve | 0.866 |
P value | <0.001 |
95% confidence interval | 0.816–0.916 |
Journal & publication date | The Spine Journal, 2017 |
A comparison of the following clinical scenarios illustrates the clinical utility of Ambulation.
Case 1A 22-year-old male involved in a motor vehicle accident presents to emergency department with a T12 chance fracture with severe canal stenosis. A diagnosis of traumatic SCI is made and the acute physical examination by the attending physician reveals an L3 motor score of 3, and an S1 light touch sensation (LTS) score of 1. The calculated likelihood of walking independently would be 71%. Based on a probability ≥ 50%, the model would predict that this patient will likely be able to independently walk 1-year after his injury.
Case 2A 68-year-old male was brought into the emergency department after sustaining a SCI due to a fall from a height within his home. He was admitted to the spinal unit of a tertiary care hospital where the orthopedic surgeon assessed the patient, revealing a neurological examination with an L3 motor score of 3, and an S1 LTS score of 1. The calculated likelihood of walking independently would be 23%. Based on a probability < 50%, the model would predict that this patient will likely not be able to walk independently 1-year after the TSCI.
Two similar clinical scenarios have been presented with long-term functional outcomes predicted by the Hicks et al. clinical prediction rule. In each case, the prediction for long-term independent walking ability would have implications for counselling the patient and informing their rehabilitation.1. Hicks KE, Zhao Y, Fallah N, et al. A simplified clinical prediction rule for prognosticating independent walking after spinal cord injury: a prospective study from a Canadian multicenter spinal cord injury registry. Spine J. 2017;17(10):1383-1392. doi:10.1016/j.spinee.2017.05.031